Cancer Immunotherapy Sector Predicted to Surge to USD 9 Billion Across Major Pharma Through 2022

This notable growth will be fueled by the anticipated market entry of nine novel immunotherapies--including four novel immune checkpoint inhibitors and five novel therapeutic vaccines—in new oncology indications and/or patient populations, according to Decision Resources Group (Burlington, MA, USA). Combined, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s anti-CTLA-4 agent Yervoy and innovative immune checkpoint inhibitors that target the anti-programmed cell death-1/programmed death-ligand-1 (PD-1/PD-L1) pathway—including Bristol-Myers Squibb/Ono Pharmaceutical’s nivolumab, Merck & Co.'s pembrolizumab (MK-3475), Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s MPDL-3280A and AstraZeneca/MedImmune’s MEDI4736—should dominate the immunotherapy market and capture a remarkable 85% market share in 2022.

Other key findings from the Pharmacor Immunotherapies advisory service include: potential of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents: Interviewed experts are considerably excited about the potential of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents based on encouraging data released to date in multiple oncology indications. The added prospect of using PD-L1 expression as a potential predictive biomarker for customizing treatment fascinated interviewed experts; however, they remain watchful on this point, noting that considerable heterogeneity exists in PD-L1 expression and that good objective responses have also been reported in patients considered to have no or low levels of PD-L1 expression.

Because of the impressive early-phase data presented at the 2014 annual meeting of the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO), held May 30-June 3, 2014, in Chicago (IL, USA), interviewed experts expressed enthusiasm for combination approaches involving immunotherapies—including dual blockade of the immune checkpoint pathway, combinations of immune checkpoint inhibitors with therapeutic cancer vaccines and combinations of immune checkpoint inhibitors with chemotherapy.

The therapeutic vaccines segment will see, according to Decision Resources Group, 13.6% annual sales growth over the 2012 to 2022 forecast period, although, with combined major-market sales reaching USD 1.2 billion in 2022, these agents will not reach the commercial success of immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Decision Resources Group senior business insights analyst Khurram Nawaz, MSc, commented, “A plethora of immunotherapies are in development across a wide range of oncology indications, making this drug class one of the most exciting to watch. We anticipate that nivolumab will be the sales-leading agent among immunotherapies. However, it will face direct and intense competition from other anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents—notably from pembrolizumab in malignant melanoma and non-small-cell lung cancer—and to a lesser degree, from MPDL-3280A in non-small-cell lung cancer. Interviewed experts express mixed reactions to therapeutic vaccines and note the challenges in monitoring the efficacy of these agents. Nevertheless, they are hopeful that some vaccines will provide new therapeutic options and hold greatest promise as part of combination strategies.”

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